https://www.honesteconomist.com/column daily 0.75 2026-04-02 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-labor-market-worker-protection monthly 0.5 2026-04-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/aab6430a-a2ae-416b-b75b-9c5b817d64b5/2026-04-02_Melissa_Cover-image.webp COLUMN - The Limitations of Means Tested Programs: Unemployment Benefits Won’t Solve Job Seekers' AI-Driven Labor Market Struggle - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/the-k-shaped-gas-pump-divide monthly 0.5 2026-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/eaa75d5e-f1a4-4c6a-8969-232f9b698137/2026-03-31_Marc_Cover-image.webp COLUMN - The War Tax You're Already Paying https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/cad87055-3445-4f8d-9de9-7c007630bc97/war_tax_regressive3.png COLUMN - The War Tax You're Already Paying - Make it stand out The same gas price shock hits lower-income households nearly three times harder than higher-income households, measured as a share of income. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/india-frontier-tech-strategy monthly 0.5 2026-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/179d9a1c-c71a-4eec-9812-eff939be35a7/ChatGPT+Image+Mar+27%2C+2026%2C+09_54_51+AM.jpg COLUMN - India’s Frontier Bet Faces a Hard Constraint… Ownership https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/e99fc54d-10bc-448e-838e-9e5c16aa0e4b/image_for_article.png COLUMN - India’s Frontier Bet Faces a Hard Constraint… Ownership - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-changing-degree-to-job-pipeline monthly 0.5 2026-04-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/a0f11944-ef84-4776-a37a-8bcb05c933a7/a9d814fb-684e-4fcd-8621-e1cb1f55b9c6.webp COLUMN - The Degree as a Weakening Signal: Companies Want AI-ready Grads, but Students Aren’t Prepared - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-search-attribution-gap monthly 0.5 2026-03-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/17b026f1-5043-478e-9778-353cc1dbe5d7/ChatGPT+Image+Mar+10%2C+2026%2C+11_24_33+AM.webp COLUMN - When Your Best Customer Can’t Click https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/fb31477b-fbd7-4572-8927-1e60f66750c4/Screenshot+2026-03-06+at+10.06.59%E2%80%AFPM.png COLUMN - When Your Best Customer Can’t Click - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/skills-high-school-students-ai-economy monthly 0.5 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d628bd86-f22e-4351-8c47-db37dfa28f22/2026-03-05_Melissa_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - Pack Your Schedule or Sharpen Your Positioning? Skills High School Students Can Develop in the Age of AI - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/economics-of-ai-sovereignty monthly 0.5 2026-03-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/a0c41de9-c394-4f81-b00c-b2ec98bfbc80/Copy_ChatGPT+Image+Feb+27%2C+2026%2C+02_03_44+PM.png COLUMN - Can We “Win” the AI Race Together? https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/advertising-in-a-tightening-cycle monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/5f8c44bc-b395-4c1c-b475-28df168a96d5/2026-02-24_Marc_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - In The Room Where Marketing Budgets Happen https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/16b5999b-322d-498b-a185-678e4a493803/image+%281%29.png COLUMN - In The Room Where Marketing Budgets Happen - Make it stand out The 2022–2023 tightening cycle: As the Fed raised rates 525 basis points, advertising forecasts were repeatedly revised downward. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/meritocracy-in-an-ai-hiring-market monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/55704c9f-6aca-4ae4-b895-d41ccc5fe840/ChatGPT+Image+Feb+19%2C+2026%2C+11_06_26+PM.webp COLUMN - Grit Won’t Solve Students’ Labor Market Challenges: Redefining Merit and Success for the Younger Generation - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/job-guarantee-in-an-ai-economy monthly 0.5 2026-02-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d47f0cbd-d935-4438-9a3a-1bc900e7ab40/ChatGPT+Image+Feb+12%2C+2026%2C+10_31_01+AM.png COLUMN - If Work Becomes Optional, What Does the State Owe Us? https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/entrepreneurship-as-a-fallback monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2d95f509-ed52-4fe9-948f-98b6b80fc655/2026-02-10_Marc_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - The Great Labor Opt-Out https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/237607f3-6853-4809-8410-13573eefc757/image.png COLUMN - The Great Labor Opt-Out - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/8cef4fee-923f-404b-8d40-546b3a933016/image+%281%29.png COLUMN - The Great Labor Opt-Out - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-wealth-redistribution monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/dba798dd-1fa3-4278-b7d2-a45d857ad464/2026-02-05_Melissa_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - Trillionaires and Layoffs? An Approach to Redistribute Companies’ AI-Related Wealth - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-layoffs-and-corporate-discipline monthly 0.5 2026-02-12 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/4bcf7e2e-2a84-44c1-90a0-4c9d75db1552/ChatGPT+Image+Jan+29%2C+2026%2C+08_55_32+PM.png COLUMN - Why the AI Explanation Took Over https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/82d69ad4-e476-44e7-a532-d0bb395d50f7/unemp_account.png COLUMN - Why the AI Explanation Took Over Over the past six months, the Sticky Unemployment Ratio has risen decisively from roughly the low-8s into the 9.0 range, reaching its highest level in the series by early 2026. This reflects a clear increase in unemployment persistence: continuing claimants have continued to climb toward the mid-24 million range while initial inflows have not surged proportionately, implying that workers are remaining on benefits longer rather than layoffs accelerating sharply. The recent pattern therefore signals a labour market that is softening through duration and reduced exit rates, with unemployment becoming more entrenched at the margin despite the absence of a dramatic shock in new claims. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-hiring-feedback-loop monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/81418ca4-7383-49ce-9051-976ceb6454aa/2026-01-27_Marc_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - Apply More, Hear Less, Feel Worse https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/aafef9cc-9e11-4a32-8082-41819608d047/job_seeker_urban_horizontal.png COLUMN - Apply More, Hear Less, Feel Worse https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ubi-ai-power-dynamics-pt2 monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/af7ee41d-08d9-4f78-93e3-788a6cc2a9b9/2026-01-22_Melissa_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - Universal Basic Income in an AI-Driven Age Part 2: Architecting a Fair Policy - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/fed-signals-no-longer-reach-households monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/03a37ef2-67e9-48e1-84a4-98987d4adaab/edited_2026-01-13_Marc_CoverImage.webp COLUMN - The Fed's Communication Channel is a Broken Functor - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/449e76dd-7765-48ff-912f-d4446a58f811/expectations_gap.png COLUMN - The Fed's Communication Channel is a Broken Functor https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2d10c1ed-06a9-4a24-8cd6-b324d5b3f618/sentiment_chart.png COLUMN - The Fed's Communication Channel is a Broken Functor - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/6b49da79-b951-45ba-b1d5-006cdeea24df/functor_diagram.png COLUMN - The Fed's Communication Channel is a Broken Functor - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ubi-ai-power-dynamics monthly 0.5 2026-03-10 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/9225ebb5-508d-49a3-92e8-3f4e942a469e/2026-01-08_Melissa-article_UBI.webp COLUMN - Exploring Universal Basic Income in an AI-Driven Age: Economic Security or Power Dynamics? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/geopolitical-shocks-household-finance monthly 0.5 2026-01-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/8e7f877a-40c4-47ac-ae69-3176e734fd7e/warmer_ChatGPT+Image+Jan+6%2C+2026%2C+08_59_45+PM.png COLUMN - Stop Doomscrolling, and Start Stress-Testing: How Geopolitics Hits the Economy and Your Wallet - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/632f10b5-e1fe-4c89-b4e5-64cc3f2043f7/how-geopol-risk-wallets-chart.png COLUMN - Stop Doomscrolling, and Start Stress-Testing: How Geopolitics Hits the Economy and Your Wallet https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/robotics-over-llms monthly 0.5 2026-01-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/0c25bb79-c068-4ef1-9786-7661303a774a/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+30%2C+2025%2C+04_54_02+PM.png COLUMN - Why I'm Betting on Bodies, Not Just Brains - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/79e50fc8-18fc-49ed-9621-ac0ba4c983f3/whenrobots.png COLUMN - Why I'm Betting on Bodies, Not Just Brains https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/fed-rate-cuts-youth-unemployment monthly 0.5 2026-01-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/95c4232f-330c-47e9-a668-359a2b7406f3/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+18%2C+2025%2C+09_47_33+PM.png COLUMN - Will the Fed’s Decision to Cut Interest Rates Solve the Unemployment Problem? Only if it Benefits Young Workers. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/14d42738-57d7-46c7-a92d-863bd988976f/1766031440145.png COLUMN - Will the Fed’s Decision to Cut Interest Rates Solve the Unemployment Problem? Only if it Benefits Young Workers. - The charts display the simultaneous increase in core PCE inflation and overall unemployment. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-adoption-productivity-gap monthly 0.5 2025-12-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/993a79d1-7d4b-4ab4-8c77-638b5e3eec46/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+16%2C+2025%2C+06_02_07+PM.png COLUMN - AI Has Been Adopted. So Why Is Productivity Still Hard to See? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/83ce34a1-a265-43ae-ba06-cf1262c6b58e/Screenshot+2025-12-13+at+8.09.47%E2%80%AFPM.png COLUMN - AI Has Been Adopted. So Why Is Productivity Still Hard to See? - Make it stand out Original work product by Mardoqueo Arteaga. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/1c67bc32-82bf-43e1-ba89-af5a065f2a19/Screenshot+2025-12-13+at+7.23.13%E2%80%AFPM.png COLUMN - AI Has Been Adopted. So Why Is Productivity Still Hard to See? https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/dollar-dominance-and-brics monthly 0.5 2025-12-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/b4349666-29e7-4ba5-a3ee-8235f0e9ad53/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+10%2C+2025%2C+12_05_08+PM.png COLUMN - BRICS, the Dollar, and the Real Economics Behind the Global Power Shift - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/05364cbc-441e-4cd5-b69f-eb6ca09a0023/chart.png COLUMN - BRICS, the Dollar, and the Real Economics Behind the Global Power Shift The Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is an index that measures the value of a country’s currency against a basket of multiple foreign currencies, adjusted for relative price. It is designed to capture changes in international price competitiveness. In essence, when this index appreciates it means the home currency becomes more expensive relative to its trading partners, often indicating a loss of external competitiveness, since domestic goods become costlier relative to foreign alternatives. But, on the flip side, appreciation (i.e., a strengthened currency) means increased domestic productivity, reduced relative costs of imported goods, economies that have shifted toward high-value services or technology-intensive industries, and other such explanations! https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/responsible-ai-mental-health monthly 0.5 2025-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d47a9a5a-1c4f-4db3-bcba-03a30d7134ad/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+4%2C+2025%2C+05_25_50+PM.png COLUMN - Toward a Responsible Vision of AI in Mental Health Tools: Interview with Daniela Andrade, Head of Growth at Resolution - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/selling-to-ai-agents monthly 0.5 2025-12-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/475e4e95-5f8b-4d1a-b2b2-b80ddc379772/ChatGPT+Image+Dec+2%2C+2025%2C+05_42_22+PM.png COLUMN - How to Sell to a Customer Who Isn't Human - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/408c7957-66f1-4470-a62d-e5533b1338c3/Screenshot+2025-11-30+at+9.49.48%E2%80%AFPM.png COLUMN - How to Sell to a Customer Who Isn't Human - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-scarcity-costs monthly 0.5 2025-11-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/265029af-65e5-4798-af27-f158da85a055/ChatGPT+Image+Nov+26%2C+2025%2C+06_19_45+PM+-+Copy.png COLUMN - If AI Is the Deal, the Surcharges Are the Catch. (Time to Read the Fine Print) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/can-ai-think-like-an-economist monthly 0.5 2025-12-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/256595c4-66d3-462f-b9c7-54e222ba0ac0/11-20-2025_image_melissa.png COLUMN - Could AI Master Economic Thinking to Solve Real-World Problems? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/ai-paradox-entry-level-job monthly 0.5 2025-12-02 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/8fdb437c-2e2e-461c-bb4a-fd65bc4bcf2e/ChatGPT+Image+Nov+18%2C+2025%2C+09_00_51+AM.png COLUMN - The AI Paradox: Why Your New Colleague Is Only Coming for Your Entry-Level Job - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/13ea4a8f-ab29-4a05-b596-3467f6d619a4/indeed_hiring_july2025.png COLUMN - The AI Paradox: Why Your New Colleague Is Only Coming for Your Entry-Level Job https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/b0f86092-a146-4633-b3d1-301e6f20ecd2/Screenshot+2025-11-17+at+9.55.03%E2%80%AFAM.png COLUMN - The AI Paradox: Why Your New Colleague Is Only Coming for Your Entry-Level Job - Make it stand out Source: Fig. 3. Division of labor in AI-enhanced work, showing the disaggregated activities of the human user (goal) versus the AI assistant (action). Source: Tomlinson et al. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/householdfinanceuncertainty monthly 0.5 2025-11-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/144ef73b-b567-43ed-a4e4-371a915ba925/ChatGPT+Image+Nov+6%2C+2025%2C+11_52_09+AM.png COLUMN - Markets Are Trading on Uncertainty. But Households Don’t Have To. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/ce0a7c7f-d49d-4a2c-befb-ec9c27540007/chart.png COLUMN - Markets Are Trading on Uncertainty. But Households Don’t Have To. - Even without a recession, elevated uncertainty discourages firms from investing and hiring. Policymakers should treat sustained uncertainty as a latent tightening of financial conditions. When indices are in the top quartile (>0.3 normalized), history shows firms that phase investments or shorten planning horizons outperform those making large irreversible commitments. Consecutive quarters of high readings often precede transitions (from expansion to slowdown), or risk-on to risk-off. Useful for timing hedging strategies or sector rotation. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/fedcommunicationnoise monthly 0.5 2025-11-06 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/6eddae06-e52b-484a-8508-a0251ba22fcd/ChatGPT+Image+Nov+4%2C+2025%2C+02_30_26+PM.png COLUMN - Monetary Policy for People Who Were Not Listening - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/f6d527b2-6674-451e-8b5a-fb1410951926/Screenshot+2025-10-29+at+10.42.40%E2%80%AFPM.png COLUMN - Monetary Policy for People Who Were Not Listening - Source: Federal Reserve https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/aiutopiaexpectations monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d8ca4d6e-be0f-47d4-be3d-44868e804677/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+30%2C+2025%2C+06_22_41+PM.png COLUMN - Sorry to Burst the Bubble! Why AI’s Promise Won’t Deliver Without a New Economic Framework - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/collegedegreerelevance monthly 0.5 2025-11-20 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/51b5b702-3efe-4792-bf8e-9eb31e1376f1/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+23%2C+2025%2C+02_07_08+PM.png COLUMN - Will Technological Change Make the Degree Irrelevant? It’s Up to Colleges to Decide. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/powellsoftlanding monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/ad452337-9678-468a-8cb0-295399cdd47c/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+22%2C+2025%2C+01_15_48+PM.png COLUMN - The Ghost of 1995: Why Powell's Bid for a "Soft Landing" Is Far Riskier Than Greenspan's - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d1f20210-42e5-408b-80d3-0cbd4ed22dfb/contclaims_fomc.png COLUMN - The Ghost of 1995: Why Powell's Bid for a "Soft Landing" Is Far Riskier Than Greenspan's - The Fed is easing before unemployment claims show clear weakness. Cut suggestions are being more heavily weighted on expectation, rather than evidence. This is an inversion of past soft-landing playbooks. Unlike previous cycles, tightening in 2022–23 did not produce a notable uptick in claims. This suggests that the post-pandemic labor market has become less responsive to interest rate hikes, likely due to structural constraints and demographic changes. Flat claims may mislead policymakers into complacency. A small economic slip could quickly expose how little cushion remains. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/globaleconomictransition monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/bf9a3f57-4382-44a9-98cc-d1d44a61ace0/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+21%2C+2025%2C+12_37_40+PM.png COLUMN - Global Economy in Transition: Notes from the NABE Annual Meeting - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/dc4e56f2-f57f-4d5d-81e4-7707b462fbfc/marteaga_tpu_image.png COLUMN - Global Economy in Transition: Notes from the NABE Annual Meeting - As of Oct. 20, 2025. Note: Data are monthly. Calculations: The Honest Economist. Source: International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/embraceaijobscarcity monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/352a0e2d-f1e7-45da-9d41-57c7e7da7b1f/Fila+de+Candidatos+al+Empleo.png COLUMN - Embrace AI or Fall Behind? Actions for Companies, Recent Graduates, and Governments in an Age of Job Scarcity - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2322e639-6b48-4472-8249-9caa10271635/melissa_charts_v2.png COLUMN - Embrace AI or Fall Behind? Actions for Companies, Recent Graduates, and Governments in an Age of Job Scarcity - Searches of the term “AI Data Scientist” (left) showed little movement before 2023 but have increased thereafter. Searches of the term “Data Scientist” (right) have remained steadier from 2022 to 2025, spiking once in 2023. Each dot represents the total number of searches in the United States over a four-week increment. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/goldpricevsdollar monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/697becac-c3cd-4fbe-bab3-2e1214f12b59/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+8%2C+2025%2C+11_12_26+AM.png COLUMN - When Price Speaks Louder Than Policy: What Households Can Learn from Gold - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/3cce0850-c2d9-4f70-8f65-c06052f17f7f/chart_sitewide.png COLUMN - When Price Speaks Louder Than Policy: What Households Can Learn from Gold - In addition to gold, this chart displays movement in the U.S. Dollar Nominal Broad Index, a measure of how strong or weak the dollar is compared with the currencies of America’s trading partners. When the index rises, the dollar is buying more foreign currency; when it falls, the dollar’s value abroad is slipping. Gold and the U.S. dollar generally move in opposite directions, but the relationship is not constant. It weakens during calm periods and strengthens sharply in crises, reflecting the shift from liquidity preference (dollar) to long-term value preservation (gold). In recessions, the dollar tends to surge first as investors seek liquidity, while gold’s rally follows as policy easing and inflation concerns emerge. This sequential pattern is evident in both the 2020 and post-2022 episodes. The dollar’s volatility is higher and more cyclical, driven by rate expectations and capital flows. Gold moves in smoother, stepwise trends, aligning with slower-moving global narratives like inflation regimes or shifts in policy credibility. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/aiassetbubble monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/590ca886-7302-4681-bd70-8da80d6f389c/ChatGPT+Image+Oct+1%2C+2025%2C+02_44_58+PM.png COLUMN - Riding High, Falling Hard: What Bubbles Teach Us About Wealth, Risk, and the AI Gold Rush - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/04632a93-5522-472a-a261-5106d8acdf7c/chart_articlesize.png COLUMN - Riding High, Falling Hard: What Bubbles Teach Us About Wealth, Risk, and the AI Gold Rush - A frequented caution for bubble detection, a Buffett indication well above 1.0 suggest markets are priced higher than the economy’s output can justify. In 7 of the past 10 years, the Buffett Indicator has remained above its long-run moving average, underscoring how equity valuations have been persistently stretched beyond historical norms. History shows that sharp corrections (2000, 2008, 2020) often follow periods of sustained elevation, highlighting how inflated valuations magnify the downside when growth slows or policy support fades. Each recession brings a drop in the ratio, but recoveries have tended to push valuations to even higher peaks, suggesting a structural upward drift in how markets are priced relative to GDP. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/recentgrademployment monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/189ba551-5525-4005-9aca-89e5df967111/ChatGPT+Image+Sep+24%2C+2025%2C+07_14_22+AM.png COLUMN - When the Degree Doesn’t Open Doors: The Employment Crisis Facing Young Graduates - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/9aecefa6-62dd-43a2-8a81-87fd1a7a00a8/1758644745329.png COLUMN - When the Degree Doesn’t Open Doors: The Employment Crisis Facing Young Graduates - Since mid-2022, the gap between unemployment rates for recent college graduates and all workers has steadily widened, reaching a peak in April 2025. Although the gap narrowed slightly in June 2025 compared with April, reporting from The New York Times (cited below) indicates that conditions worsened in July and August, and the disparity is likely to continue increasing. This represents a reversal of the historical pattern in which college graduates typically enjoyed lower unemployment than the broader workforce, signaling a structural shift in the post-pandemic labor market. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/everydayrecessionclues monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2bfe0dec-f1ad-48dc-ac0b-a21c12d4d929/ChatGPT+Image+Sep+10%2C+2025%2C+10_52_02+AM.png COLUMN - Why Discounts, Snacks, and Hair Color Matter More Than GDP - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/f5daec65-dd4a-4111-bbd8-39173e75ede6/chart.png COLUMN - Why Discounts, Snacks, and Hair Color Matter More Than GDP - These are terms I frequently track to take a more real-time pulse on the minds of American households, giving an immediate sense of stress before the reports catch up. Rising searches for “Credit Card Debt” and “How to Budget” reveal how families respond when money feels tight, shifting behaviour faster than official data shows. Surges in “Lost My Job” capture labour market fears early, offering a window into household insecurity that standard statistics only confirm later. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/inflationfedfundsrate monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/4e57a266-76e7-423e-98c3-89a686b2a3eb/ChatGPT+Image+Aug+27%2C+2025%2C+10_08_54+AM.png COLUMN - Inflation, Growth, and Economic Independence: Why the Federal Funds Rate Is Not a Switch - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/41cb66b3-5064-429c-a120-3e65d9602e9b/ffr_inflation_growth.png COLUMN - Inflation, Growth, and Economic Independence: Why the Federal Funds Rate Is Not a Switch - Taken together, the chart shows that higher interest rates do not automatically spell recession. Since 2022, the Fed has held policy at its most restrictive stance in decades, with nominal rates fairly recently below 5% and real rates firmly positive. Yet growth has remained in positive territory even as inflation has cooled. The lesson is clear: the link between rate hikes and recession is neither mechanical nor inevitable. What the series also highlight is the importance of timing and context. Inflation raced ahead of monetary policy in 2021 to 2022, but its decline followed within the expected lag as monetary tightening took hold. Unlike 2007 to 2009, when output collapsed under financial stress, today’s adjustment reflects supply chains healing and fiscal stimulus fading rather than a collapse in private demand. In this cycle, policy has restored price stability with far less damage to growth, which is evidence that the dynamics of inflation and recession are more nuanced than the simplest narratives allow. Recessions defined at: Rethinking Recessions https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/politicalinterference monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/9e3d486f-fed2-4aa2-9886-12e08728d762/ChatGPT+Image+Aug+13%2C+2025%2C+08_16_54+AM.png COLUMN - How Economic Standards Survive Political Interference - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/77f3d4a5-c77a-428d-a2d7-4f71c46468ce/bls_revisions_chart.png COLUMN - How Economic Standards Survive Political Interference - The chart highlights a striking shift in the scale of U.S. nonfarm payroll employment revisions over the past two decades (since this is what caused all the ruckus). Prior to 2020, revision magnitudes were relatively modest and gradually declining, reflecting the BLS's ability to refine early payroll estimates with additional incoming data in a relatively stable economic environment. This consistency fostered confidence in the reliability of the initial monthly job reports, with annual revisions typically ranging between 400,000 and 800,000 jobs. That pattern changed dramatically in the wake of COVID-19. Revisions surged to an unprecedented level in 2020, before falling steadily in subsequent years. This elevated volatility reflects the immense challenge of capturing labor market dynamics amid sudden closures, policy interventions, and delayed employer responses. Yet, the pronounced downward trend in revision size since that peak suggests a return to statistical normalization. While current levels remain above the pre-pandemic baseline, the trajectory points to what can only be a recovery in the precision and predictability of monthly employment data. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/stockmarketrealeconomy monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/6529e5df-0168-4607-bab6-43dc885832e9/ChatGPT+Image+Jul+22%2C+2025%2C+11_22_29+PM.png COLUMN - The Mirage of the Market: Why Highs Don’t Mean Broad Prosperity - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/9cc3212e-69be-46c2-a4ce-75227989826b/chart_real-economy.png COLUMN - The Mirage of the Market: Why Highs Don’t Mean Broad Prosperity - The three panels show an economy that has shifted from climb to glide. Business applications rose through 2023, rolled over in early 2024, then merely steadied, which signals cooling entrepreneurial momentum instead of a renewed surge. Real personal consumption kept advancing until early 2025, but the line now flattens, so households are holding spending levels rather than extending them. Continued unemployment claims keep inching higher, pointing to a labor market that is loosening slowly instead of tightening. All of this is happening while the stock market keeps printing new highs amid greater policy and geopolitical uncertainty and softer macro data. Equity prices are riding liquidity, outsized gains in a few mega-cap tech firms and expectations of easier policy, none of which requires broad-based real growth in the near term. The result is a widening gap between what Wall Street is pricing and what “Main Street” is feeling (and signaling). https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/fedreserveindependence monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/5a67afde-03aa-40d7-a905-b485679fdb30/fed-independence.png COLUMN - Why an Independent Fed Matters More Than Ever - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/002ac015-fe38-4bef-be9e-ef3cacb3ab0a/chart_fed-independence.png COLUMN - Why an Independent Fed Matters More Than Ever - There are, at minimum, three recurring macro configurations that stand out as common catalysts for executive branch pressure on the Federal Reserve. And each tends to pull against sound, medium‑horizon monetary practice (since… economics is neither linear nor straightforward with respect to time): When the policy rate is rising quickly or sits materially above contained inflation while unemployment is relatively low but wobbling higher, incumbents often press for a pause or cuts to forestall growth weakness. Yet, best practice argues for staying the course until disinflation and expectations are secure. When inflation is climbing and unemployment is still relatively low in the run‑up to an election, political actors have strong incentives to resist pre‑emptive tightening that would damp activity before voting. However, a forward‑looking central bank should lean against emerging price pressure early to avoid a larger, costlier correction later. In crisis or post‑crisis episodes when the policy rate is pinned near zero and labor markets are distressed, the expansion of emergency lending facilities invites political influence over credit allocation and exit timing. Again, however, operational independence and rule‑based program design are critical to preserve impartiality and anchor expectations. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tariffsandtrade2025 monthly 0.5 2025-07-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/be8009b4-fa5f-4905-b499-00e10697d7bf/ChatGPT+Image+Jul+9%2C+2025%2C+07_51_11+AM.png COLUMN - Tariffs, Tactics, and Trade-offs: How Our Current Trade War Strategy Misses the Long Game - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/6a327112-6648-4a1b-9a2c-1a2108bca7bb/customs_duties.png COLUMN - Tariffs, Tactics, and Trade-offs: How Our Current Trade War Strategy Misses the Long Game - The chart traces quarterly year-on-year movements in United States customs duty revenues alongside real GDP growth from 2015 to the latest quarter, revealing that tariff-driven receipts and overall economic output do not follow a one-for-one trajectory. Crucially, the most recent two-year window underscores an inverse pattern: as GDP settles into moderate yet steady expansion, duty revenues slip into negative territory before only modestly recovering, signaling that softer import volumes and the fading of tariff-base effects can depress fiscal inflows even while the broader economy grows. The overall picture affirms that customs duty changes respond to trade policy and import dynamics rather than mirroring aggregate output. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/shrinkflationtrends monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/fa0abe84-a8bc-4bf1-9f2a-da69b90127e9/ChatGPT+Image+Jul+1%2C+2025%2C+10_53_32+PM.png COLUMN - Leave the Chantilly Alone! The Quiet Rewriting of America’s Consumer Experience - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/67c1af5b-1d0f-4d26-85fd-ff6160c860b7/chart_inflation.png COLUMN - Leave the Chantilly Alone! The Quiet Rewriting of America’s Consumer Experience - Since the start of 2025, food inflation is the only major spending category that has continued to climb, with the pace of increase itself edging higher, whereas housing, medical and energy costs have either levelled out or declined. Housing inflation, although still elevated, has trended lower in line with a cooling rental market; medical inflation rose briefly in mid-2024 before flattening; and energy prices have remained erratic, shifting between sizeable deflationary dips and short-lived rebounds driven by global and seasonal forces. The persistence and recent acceleration of food prices therefore help explain why households still feel the pinch even as headline measures of inflation show signs of easing. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/steadyfedrates monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2c686b30-5094-4982-8269-3bdf8abc75fe/ChatGPT+Image+Jul+2%2C+2025%2C+10_18_25+AM.png COLUMN - Staying the Course: Why the Fed Isn’t Cutting Rates (Yet) - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/abd58fd3-d92c-4530-a0cb-6a234b7bd46e/chart.png COLUMN - Staying the Course: Why the Fed Isn’t Cutting Rates (Yet) - Housing inflation accelerated from early-2021 and peaked near 8% in mid-2022, whereas the 30-year mortgage rate began climbing only after markets anticipated monetary tightening late in 2021. The Federal Reserve maintained the policy rate at the zero lower bound until March-2022 and then lifted it swiftly to roughly 5% by mid-2023. The sequence of events, with housing inflation rising first, mortgage rates adjusting next, and the federal funds rate responding last, signals a reactive policy stance and underscores the lag between a policy move and its effect on retail borrowing costs and, in turn, shelter prices. By early-2025, two of the three series have converged in the 4 to 5% range, suggesting partial normalization; however, mortgage rates still exceed the policy rate, a spread that reflects an elevated term premium and persistent credit-risk aversion, both of which continue to curb housing affordability despite easing measured inflation. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/homeprofiteering monthly 0.5 2025-11-04 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/b835d68a-baa2-4654-a3d9-c46522d065c5/ChatGPT+Image+Jun+17%2C+2025%2C+11_08_40+PM.png COLUMN - We Were Great Tenants. The Algorithm Didn’t Care. - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/00178d3b-e334-46d3-acbd-c65f3e7f25e2/chart.png COLUMN - We Were Great Tenants. The Algorithm Didn’t Care. - Year-on-year growth in US home prices (red) has proved much more volatile than rent inflation (blue) over 2000-2025. Home values surged during the mid-2000s boom, fell steeply in the Great Recession, recovered through the 2010s, and spiked above 20% during the pandemic before decelerating sharply. Rent growth, by contrast, has largely stayed within a 2–5% corridor, dipping only briefly in downturns. The latest readings for 2024-25 reveal home-price appreciation cooling while rent inflation moves back toward its long-run range, highlighting that shelter costs rise persistently yet the purchase market remains far more cyclical, creating distinct risk and timing considerations for renters and prospective buyers. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/aiworkforce monthly 0.5 2025-06-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/d5b624b6-6f25-491f-8a13-c5c4e99c8a47/ChatGPT+Image+Jun+10%2C+2025%2C+09_14_14+PM.png COLUMN - The AI Advantage: How to Prepare for an Economy That Thinks in Code and Benchmarks in Silence - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/4798ae06-49c6-47e6-8986-e53ebb9b961e/googletrends_AI.png COLUMN - The AI Advantage: How to Prepare for an Economy That Thinks in Code and Benchmarks in Silence - Since January 2023, public interest in artificial intelligence has risen by more than 200 per cent year‑on‑year, signalling a societal fixation of extraordinary velocity. This escalation owes more to narrative momentum than to incremental fundamentals, propelled by compounding innovation, media amplification, and a growing sense of strategic importance. By comparison (and by no means unimpressive) the S&P 500 has produced roughly 16% annualized growth over the same interval, a pace that pales beside the exponential expansion of attention accorded to AI. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/rethinkingrecession monthly 0.5 2025-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/8ce3a379-002f-4a3d-840b-29ef51518927/ChatGPT+Image+Jun+3%2C+2025%2C+10_55_55+PM.png COLUMN - Who Really Feels the Downturn? Rethinking “Recession” from the Ground Up - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/f0215564-c9a4-4c7e-8a56-0b4edfbb9f5b/Picture1.png COLUMN - Who Really Feels the Downturn? Rethinking “Recession” from the Ground Up - This visualization applies a custom recession definition that distinguish between firm-level and household-level downturns, offering a more detailed categorization than conventional benchmarks. It reveals a higher frequency of economic distress, aligning with but also extending beyond official NBER designations by showing which parts of the economy were most impacted during each period. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/trappedbynumbers monthly 0.5 2025-06-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/e0ef4d32-7531-469b-9d1c-cc6f16dc6de3/Credit+Score+Finance+Man+Woman COLUMN - Trapped by Numbers: How Credit Scores are Limiting Financial Freedom - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/681bce046a3ad232dc8b49fe/2de04af1-013f-4029-b4c4-41ed6874f131/transunion_buyscore.png COLUMN - Trapped by Numbers: How Credit Scores are Limiting Financial Freedom - A stark reminder of financial gatekeeping: this image shows a prompt to purchase one’s own credit score, illustrating an audacious move by credit agencies to monetize access to a metric to which individuals never consented, cannot independently verify, and by which they are nevertheless assessed in nearly every major financial decision. https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/category/HONEST+EDUCATION monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/category/HONEST+FINANCE monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/category/HONEST+ECONOMICS monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Marketing+Strategy monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Self-employment monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/AI+Displacement monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Financial+Freedom monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Innovation+Diffusion monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Policy+Risk monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Mental+Health monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Government+Institutions monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Shrinkflation monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/GDP monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Forex monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Digital+Advertising monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Workforce+Training monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Business+Cycles monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Behavioral+Economics monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Economic+Credibility monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Data+Labeling monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Reserve+Currencies monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Productivity monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Universal+Basic+Employment monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Real+Assets monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Higher+Education monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Tariffs monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Geopolitics monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Marketing+Budgets monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/AI monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Gig+Economy monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Government+Accountability monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Unemployment monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Labor+Economics monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Externalities monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Consumer+Sentiment monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Economic+Reasoning monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Marketing+Attribution monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/AI+Bubble monthly 0.5 https://www.honesteconomist.com/column/tag/Cloud+Jurisdiction monthly 0.5 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