Earlier this year, John, a seasoned professional with a major firm, decided it was time for a leap. The stock market had been climbing steadily, financial headlines were full of optimism, and investor sentiment seemed to signal a revitalised economy. And John was getting increasingly tired of feeling left out. So, convinced that growth had returned, he left his stable job to join a consumer–facing start‑up.

Six weeks later, John was unemployed.

The start‑up’s sales projections were built on an assumed rebound in household demand, but real personal consumption expenditures had stalled. Delinquency rates on credit‑card loans were climbing toward the highest level recorded since the early 2020s, and unemployment‑insurance claims had been trending upward since April. Meanwhile, corporate profits after tax had registered their first significant drop in more than two years, and real exports had flattened.

John’s decision was shaped by a popular narrative: when equities rise, the economy must be healthy. That narrative is both persistent and dangerous.