Picture this: you walk into your favorite department store and notice two things at once. First, the racks are heavier with "40% off" tags than you have seen in years. Second, the checkout line feels strangely light, with fewer people and smaller baskets. What’s sad is that this picture may not be all that difficult to imagine…

For professional economists, these signals are not trivial. But for households, they are even more telling. Recessions leave footprints in daily life long before policymakers announce them.

At the time of writing, the probability of an Economic Crisis, defined as the overlap of a firm recession and a household recession, stands at 46.5% over the next three months. The broader likelihood of either type of recession occurring is 82.4%. These probabilities are serious, but they do not have to be paralyzing.

The Honest Economist’s central argument is that recessions are always felt before they are declared. The question is how to notice them and what to do when you do.

For decades, economists have looked beyond GDP charts and payroll data to find meaning in the everyday economy. Some of these informal signals began as jokes, others as casual observations, but many contain a hard truth. When households shift their choices in food, grooming, or even undergarments, those decisions often reflect deeper anxieties about the future.