Most forecasts treat the economy as one giant machine. Ours looks under the hood!

This tool breaks recession risk into two parts: one for firms, and one for households. Each month, it updates the likelihood of downturns on both sides, as well as the chances of a full economic crisis or a partial slowdown where only one side suffers. The original material on these definitions can be found HERE.

This is not just about if a recession is coming. It’s about who is most exposed, and when. Real people’s lives and livelihoods are on the line…

Check the latest probabilities to see what the next few months might hold!