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HONEST ECONOMICS Mardoqueo Arteaga HONEST ECONOMICS Mardoqueo Arteaga

The Great Labor Opt-Out

The article argues that the surge in “founder” and “creator” identities is less a cultural shift than a labor supply response to a deteriorating outside option. With hiring stuck well below pre-pandemic levels and job search feedback collapsing, the expected value of traditional job hunting has fallen. Workers who can exit do so, not because self-employment is superior, but because the probability of receiving a viable offer has declined.

It links LinkedIn trends to Census data showing business applications far above pre-pandemic norms, then reframes the surge using “high-propensity” measures: much of the growth looks like low-payroll, freelance, or gig registration rather than classic startup dynamism. This “Haltiwanger inversion” suggests business formation now partly captures labor market blockage. The article concludes that necessity-driven self-employment can reshape B2B demand and may not lift productivity, even if AI tools lower barriers for genuine entrepreneurs.

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