The article argues that observed demand reflects not only people’s needs, but also their expectations about whether participating is worthwhile. New York Fed data show this distinction clearly: discouraged non-application fell between February and June 2026, while rejection among actual applicants barely changed. These measures capture different stages of the market, and looking only at applicants can miss people who needed credit but never tried because they expected rejection.

The broader issue is selection. A business sees inquiries, applications and conversions only after potential customers decide to enter the process. Someone who expects a service to be unaffordable may never request a quote, leaving no trace in company data. The piece argues that research should therefore examine expectations before participation, distinguishing genuine barriers from mistaken beliefs and asking what information might change the decision to engage.