The article argues that 3% pandemic mortgages created a lock-in trap. With over half of loans below 4%, moving at roughly 6% rates raises payments sharply, so homeowners stay even when life changes. FHFA estimates each 1-point rate gap cuts selling odds by 18%, helping explain why existing home sales are at mid-1990s lows and inventory stays thin, keeping prices high and first-time buyers squeezed, while owners are paper rich but mobility poor.

It adds that bond-market volatility has pushed rates up again, widening the gap and delaying mobility. The market likely stays frozen until rates fall near 5%, which most forecasters do not expect in 2026 or 2027. Assumable or portable mortgages could reduce the moving penalty, but they complicate securitization, so adjustment will be slow, driven by new construction and forced life events.